A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
